By John O’Dea, Indianola Nebraska Rancher
Studying the numbers…..the US beef cow herd is continuing to shrink.
We are supposed to be “rebuilding ” the cowherd by now.
Simply put, bred females are not bringing enough premium yet for large scale replacement heifer programs to outbid the cattle feeders. I’m not complaining, just stating facts.
Calves will need to get higher yet, interest will have to get lower, expenses will need to get lower, or all of the above.
My gut feeling is, we will never see a US beef cow herd over 29 million head again for a variety of reasons. The rebuild ain’t gonna happen. We will have brief periods of sustained numbers interrupted by weather and black swan events that will cause herd reductions.
Really stepping out, I am predicting that in 30 or 40 years we will see dairy cows and beef cows each being about equal numbers, in the 15 to 20 million head range for each herd.

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